A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
